ABC Tools
Table Tennis Match Probability Calculator illustration

Table Tennis Match Probability Calculator

Builds the exact Markov chain of an 11-point table tennis game from one number per player — the probability of winning a point on own serve — including the two-serve rotation, the alternating-serve deuce from 10-10 and best-of-3, 5 or 7 games. Outputs game odds, match odds and the final game-score distribution.

Read the full guide to this tool

Momentum mode simulates 20,000 full matches point by point — expect the result to take a few seconds.
0.03
How much winning a point boosts the winner’s chance on the next one. 0 behaves like independent points; 0.03 is a moderate, realistic level; 0.1 produces heavy streaks.

Notes

  • Serve matters far less than in tennis: elite players win roughly 52-56% of points on serve, so games are much closer to coin flips and upsets are more common.
  • The model averages over the toss for who serves first in game 1; servers then alternate by game as in the real rules.
  • Educational estimate for sport and training purposes, not professional coaching or medical advice.

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