Soccer Score Simulator (Poisson)
Models both teams’ goals as independent Poisson distributions around their expected-goals inputs and computes every scoreline probability: win/draw/loss chances, the most likely exact scores, over/under 2.5 goals and both-teams-to-score. The classic baseline model behind football analytics, with an optional Dixon-Coles low-score correction that fixes plain Poisson’s known bias in 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 games.
Read the full guide to this tool
Results
Notes
- Real scores are slightly correlated: large-sample studies (Dixon & Coles 1997, Karlis & Ntzoufras 2003) find plain Poisson underrates 0-0 and 1-1 draws a touch, which is exactly what the correction repairs.
- The correction is zero-sum, so totals like over/under 2.5 goals and each team’s goal distribution are unchanged — only the draw/win split at low scores moves.
- Get expected goals from shot-based xG models, or estimate them from average goals scored and conceded.
- Educational estimate for sport and training purposes, not professional coaching or medical advice.
Related tools
Elo Rating Calculator
Expected score and rating change for any two Elo ratings and K-factor.
Playoff Series Probability Calculator
Chance of winning a best-of-3/5/7 series from your single-game win probability.
Badminton Match Probability Calculator
From serve-rally win % to game and match probability with the 30-point cap.
League Season Simulator
Monte Carlo the rest of the season: title, top-N and relegation odds from the current table.
Squash Match Probability Calculator
From serve-rally win % to game and match probability with PAR-11 scoring.
Table Tennis Match Probability Calculator
From serve-point win % to game, deuce and match probability for best-of-3/5/7.