Penalty Shootout Probability Calculator illustration

Penalty Shootout Probability Calculator

Computes exact penalty shootout win probabilities from each team’s per-kick conversion rate: the binomial distribution of goals over the first five kicks each, plus the sudden-death phase resolved analytically. See how much a few percent of conversion is worth when the match comes down to twelve yards.

Read the full guide to this tool

Notes

Professional conversion rates cluster around 75 – 78% overall, lower under elimination pressure.
The model treats every kick as independent with a flat rate — no keeper reads, pressure order or fatigue.
Educational estimate for sport and training purposes, not professional coaching or medical advice.