Pythagorean Expectation Calculator
Bill James’ Pythagorean expectation estimates what a team’s winning percentage "should" be from points scored and allowed: scored^n / (scored^n + allowed^n), with the exponent n tuned per sport (1.83 baseball, ~14 basketball, 2.37 football, 2.15 hockey). The gap between actual and expected wins is a standard measure of luck and close-game record.
Read the full guide to this tool
Results
Notes
- Teams that beat their Pythagorean record by several wins usually regress the following season; run differential predicts the future better than the win column.
- For soccer the formula ignores draws, so treat it as a rough strength measure only.
- Educational estimate for sport and training purposes, not professional coaching or medical advice.
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